Devils push pace and hunt O-zone time; Islanders sit in structure and pray for Sorokin magic. Edges: NJD’s elite PP vs NYI’s middling PK, perfect home form, Allen’s hotter hand, deeper 5v5 shot quality, Isles’ finishing due for a chill after the shutout pop. Special teams tilt + home ice seals it.

Mallorca will boss territory with the 4-2-3-1: Darder between lines feeding Joseph and the aerial magnet Muriqi, while Getafe’s 4-4-2 looks to compress, foul, and spring Mayoral/Liso on direct outlets. Edges: (1) Home shot threat vs away output — Mallorca 3.8 SOT/game to Getafe’s 2.7, with Mallorca creating 1.6 big chances/game. (2) Set-piece lane: Getafe commit 16.1 fouls/game and De Burgos averages ~5 yellows; that invites Darder/Maffeo deliveries onto Muriqi. (3) Territory and pass volume: 319 completed passes vs Getafe’s 196 underlines who carries the ball and piles pressure. (4) Availability tilt: Mallorca’s core creators start; Getafe travel without Neyou and with a reshuffled back four (Abqar-Duarte), volatile away profile (3W/3L).

Toulouse will press from a compact 3-4-2-1, funnelling Lorient’s shaky buildup into turnovers, then spring Gboho/Méthalie into the inside channels; Lorient lean on direct balls to Bamba and Tosin with Le Bris for supply, but a back three that leaks space will invite trouble. Edges: Lorient have shipped 11 in their last five (2.3 conceded per match this season) while Toulouse have allowed just 3 in their last five and post 4 clean sheets in 11. Seasonal xGA splits favor the visitors (TFC 15.5 vs Lorient 17.6). Toulouse’s recent goal differential +5 (8–3) pairs with Restes–Nicolaisen–Cresswell anchoring a low-error block. Aron Dønnum is suspended, yet Cásseres Jr. dictates tempo and Toulouse’s set structure travels better than Lorient’s volatile press. Strict referee (≈4.1 YC/game) tilts a choppy game toward the more organized side.

Forest will try to suffocate in a compact 4-2-3-1, funneling play to Gibbs-White in transition; Leeds arrive to press in waves and attack the spaces behind Williams with Aaronson/Nmecha/Okafor. Expect a scrappy, front-to-front game rather than long phases of control. Four concrete edges for goals at both ends: Forest have 0 clean sheets in 10 and concede 1.9 per match, Leeds concede 1.7 with only 2 clean sheets; Forest’s short rest after Thursday’s Europa away trip adds fatigue-errors in the back line; key Forest absences (Hudson-Odoi, Wood, Luiz, Zinchenko) push a chaotic, creator-led approach rather than sterile control; Gillett’s high card rate plus light rain = set-piece volume and second-phase shots.